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Beating the Book
By Christopher and Damon Liss
RotoWire Managing Editor
Get the Liss' brothers full picks each week at RotoWire.com
Last week's Beating the Book
I really didn't like our picks last week. When I wrote them up, it felt forced, as if I were conforming to hastily made decisions Damon and I came to on the phone that no longer had any relation to my real views on the slate. I even left a message on Damon's voice mail Sunday morning saying I thought this was going to be our 4-10 week, and I considered telling people to take the opposite of our picks in the Staff Picks article. But not only is inverse Liss nowhere near the handicapper than inverse Mike Doria is, but it seemed a bit cheap to tell people to bet the games, and then say, "By the way, we don't like these - take the opposite." Because by doing that, we win either way - if it's a good week, we still take credit, and it goes into our record, and if it's a bad week, we could say, "See, we told you to take the opposite." So, I kept my mouth shut about it (at least publicly), and we went 8-6, though our ill-conceived best bet, the Titans, was a dog.
The other funny thing that happened is that when discussing the Redskins-Giants game, I wrote: "Damon likes the Giants here, but I'm a little skeptical." Damon read that and called me on Sunday morning, saying, "Why'd you say I liked the Giants? I said I'd give you the Giants since everyone else seems to like the Redskins. Now you make it look like I was pushing for the Giants!" Of course, I thought he did push for the Giants, because I had said I wasn't sure, and he said something about giving me the Giants. But the important thing is to come clean and clear Damon's good name:
Damon Liss was not responsible for the Giants' pick last week.
There, now no one will mistake him for the genius he isn't.
This week, I'm happy with our picks which should be cause for concern, since I showed last week what a poor judge I am of our in-tune-ness with the league. So you should probably bet the opposite - either that or just bet the picks.
Our best bet is between Arizona, Houston and Tampa - we'll commit to something in the Staff Picks tomorrow.
EARLY GAMES
Chargers -6.5 at Jets
The Jets have big problems with Kevin Mawae out and Vinny Testaverde at quarterback, but their defense is still good, and six and a half is a lot for San Diego to be laying against a good defense on the road. Back the Jets.
Chargers 20 - 17
LATE GAMES
Titans +3 at Browns
Eagles +2 at Redskins
The Eagles haven't played well lately, and now Terrell Owens is listed as doubtful for the game. Washington's coming off an awful loss to the Giants, but we'll let that slide due to the atmosphere and emotion surrounding Wellington Mara's passing. In the end, we see these as equal teams, and the two point line looks like a bargain for the one that's at home. Back Washington.
Redskins 17 - 13
MONDAY NIGHT
Colts -3 at Patriots
The Colts have been impressive so far, but look who they've played: Houston, Tennessee, San Francisco, Cleveland, St. Louis, Baltimore and Jacksonville. The only decent team among them is Jacksonville, and they barely won that game in Indy. The Pats haven't looked good so far, but they've played at Denver, at Pittsburgh, at Atlanta, at Carolina and against San Diego. The Colts might have turned the corner this year, but to us the evidence is inconclusive thus far, and this line assumes otherwise. Back the Pats as home dogs here.
Patriots 24 - 23
We were 8-6 against the spread in Week 8. We're 65-49-2 on the season.
Article first appeared 11/3/05
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