Beating the Book By Christopher and Damon Liss RotoWire Managing Editor Get the Liss' brothers full picks each week at RotoWire.com Last week's Beating the Book It was a brutal week - there's no way to sugarcoat 3-11. Some of the games were just bad luck (the Giants giving up three return TDs and four picks, and losing depsite holding the Vikings to six yards in the first half). The Eagles giving away the game on Monday night, or the Redskins losing a pick'em game on a very close two-point conversion. Those three were what they were. But Arizona, Baltimore, Kansas City, the Raiders, the Jets, the Rams and the Browns - all were clearly the wrong side. What's wrong with us? Have we lost our edge? Well, favorites are covering at a 59 percent clip this season, which is virtually unheard of. Damon and I prefer to go ugly and play dogs on the premise that the Book isn't giving money away, and most people want to back the better team and therefore play favorites. In fact, Damon and I have taken 91 dogs this year (there were two pick 'ems) out of 144 possible games (63 percent). In a year that's at an all time high for favorites covering - it's a miracle that we're still seven games over .500 even after last week. What does that mean going forward? It means that unless there was some fundamental change either in the NFL or the way bookies are setting the lines, which we haven't noticed, the dogs should go back to covering their usual 51-52 percent of the time. It's tough not to get gun shy after getting destroyed and start backing more favorites, but we're not going to do that. You can't be afraid to go ugly. The Book is not giving money away, so going with the big favorite is not any safer than going with the awful dog. Each game needs to be looked at individually, and when we do that we usually end up taking the points. EARLY GAMES Panthers -3 at Bears The Panthers have played well of late, but they're largely beating up on bad teams, and going on the road to face the Bears should be tough. We could see this turning into a slugfest, especially if it's even half as windy in Chicago as it was last week. As such we'll take the home team that's getting three. Back the Bears. Bears 13 - 12 LATE GAMES Colts -5 at Bengals Damon liked the Colts, but I insisted on the Bengals. Indy has beaten a suspect New England team and edged out the Jaguars at home, but other than that, they haven't faced much serious competition. The Bengals aren't likely to slow the Colts down too much, but you can bet that they'll get up for this game, and Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson et. al. should be able to shoot this one out. In the end, the Colts get the win, but Cincy gets the cover. Colts 34 - 31 SUNDAY NIGHT Chiefs -7 at Texans The Chiefs should be able to handle a Texans squad that doesn't stop the run or the pass. Seven points is a lot to lay on the road, but this strikes us as the type of game where the Chiefs will win big, or they won't win at all. Back the Chiefs who absorb a minor third quarter Houston rally and then pull away. Chiefs 27 - 16 MONDAY NIGHT Vikings +4.5 at Packers Damon wanted to take the points here, but I think the Packers are the better team, and that they'll take care of Minnesota at home on Monday night. I kind of hope we're wrong though, because then we won't have to hear the announcers kiss Brett Favre's ass all night. Back the Packers. Packers 28 - 17 We were 3-11 against the spread in Week 10. We're 74-67-3 on the season. Article first appeared 11/10/05